The Oscars really snuck up on me this year, I guess I'm still not used to them being in February. I plan on breaking down my favorites films in a future posting so I'll try to keep this one brief. As usual I break it down as to what I think WILL win and what I think SHOULD win and yes it's not always different! But don't fret, this year I'm adding something new- overlooked nominations! Not saying they should win, not a nomination was in order.
Best Picture: WILL win: Argo SHOULD win: Argo Overlooked: The Dark Knight Rises/The Avengers/Skyfall
OK so I'm not starting off with a standoff... but I will say it was beyond refreshing to see two comic book movies and a Bond flick be done so well. With expanded nominations one of them should have gotten in. I'd give up Django Unchained's spot if it were up to me.
Best Director: WILL win: Steven Spielberg SHOULD win: David O. Russell Overlooked: Ben Affleck for Argo, Juan Antonio Bayona for The Impossible
I can't say that Spielberg doesn't deserve it, he does, but David O. Russell created an incredible movie which is highlighted by being he first film in decades to get nominations in all 4 acting categories. The Impossible may be the most overlooked film of the year, it's hard to imagine a more difficult project to undertake. True, Bigelow being overlooked for Zero Dark Thirty is beyond shocking but she just won so I think she'll survive just fine. And Affleck, duh.
Best Actor: WILL win: Daniel Day Lewis SHOULD win: Hugh Jackman Overlooked: Ben Affleck for Argo, John Hawkes for The Sessions
Overlooking Affleck is understandable here but as someone who wrote him off years ago I'm happy to say I was wrong. As I said above, I can't say that Daniel Day Lewis doesn't deserve it, he does, but as Jean Valjean Jackman got to experience EVERY emotion known to man and knocked each one out of the park. But musicals get Best Supporting nods if anything at all. I think Mr. Phoenix swooped in and grabbed Mr. Hawke's nomination which is too bad. Hawkes portrayed a nearly paralyzed polio victim with only his face as a tool and made it look easy.
Best Actress: WILL win: Jessica Chastain SHOULD win: Naomi Watts Overlooked: Noomi Rapace in Prometheus
An old Oscar rule I have is when things look pretty even, go with the more political/socially important film- hence Chastain. I will say she had the tough job of somewhere conveying a wealth of emotions without being allowed to express any of them. Watts however, as a desperate mother/wife separated from her family following the sudden 2004 Tsunami played every second of screen time with such force that its a shame she's not even being considered. Actually the word "sudden" is not even close to being adequate. Rapace is a stretch here for sure but whenever she was on screen I was simply mesmerized by her. She too showed great range, but when its on an Alien planet the Academy rarely notices.
Best Supp. Actor: WILL win: Tommy Lee Jones SHOULD win: Robert DeNiro Overlooked: Ewan McGregor for The Impossible
Lincoln probably has enough power to give the Oscar to Jones for the second time though DeNiro certainly gives a wonderful performance as a father trying to help his bipolar adult son start his life over. Waltz is also a possible spoiler thanks to his win at the Golden Globes but it might just be too soon after winning for Inglorious Basterds. McGregor didn't get as much screen time in The Impossible as Watts but his search as a husband/father is no less gripping. 16 year old Tom Holland was remarkable in that movie as well. I'm one of the few that is OK with DiCaprio being overlooked.
Best Supp. Actress: WILL win: Anne Hathaway SHOULD win: Anne Hathaway Overlooked: here's the only place I'll put in a name for a film I haven't seen but everyone so raved about Maggie Smith in The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel" that I was very shocked to see her overlooked. Or maybe it's just because I've been watching a lot of Downton Abbey lately. Samantha Banks deserved a nod too but they weren't going to nominate two actresses from the same film and since Hathaway is the biggest lock of them all, Banks takes a back seat.
Screenplays are really hard to say this year but Adapted Screenplay just might be the only shot for Silver Linings Playbook to walk away with anything this year (which is a real shame). Argo is the safe choice here I guess. As for Original Screenplay I simply have no idea. If I absolutely had to say, I guess the safe choice would be either Tarantino or Boal though I'd like to see John Gatins win for Flight, another almost-casualty this year.
Here's hoping Skyfall becomes walks away with Best Song. Adele is soooooo good.
I'd give Amour good odds at Best Foreign Film. Beyond that its hard to say so I'm not gonna.
Enjoy the show!
-Ben